Exploring a COVID-19 Endemic Scenario: High-Resolution Agent-Based Modeling of Multiple Variants.

Our efforts as a society to combat the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic are continuously challenged by the emergence of new variants. These variants can be more infectious than existing strains and many of them are also more resistant to available vaccines. The appearance of these new variants cause new surges of infections, exacerbated by infrastructural difficulties, such as shortages of medical personnel or test kits. In this work, a high-resolution computational framework for modeling the simultaneous spread of two COVID-19 variants: a widely spread base variant and a new one, is established. The computational framework consists of a detailed database of a representative U.S. town and a high-resolution agent-based model that uses the Omicron variant as the base variant and offers flexibility in the incorporation of new variants. The results suggest that the spread of new variants can be contained with highly efficacious tests and mild loss of vaccine protection. However, the aggressiveness of the ongoing Omicron variant and the current waning vaccine immunity point to an endemic phase of COVID-19, in which multiple variants will coexist and residents continue to suffer from infections.

Activity-driven network modeling and control of the spread of two concurrent epidemic strains.

The emergency generated by the current COVID-19 pandemic has claimed millions of lives worldwide. There have been multiple waves across the globe that emerged as a result of new variants, due to arising from unavoidable mutations. The existing network toolbox to study epidemic spreading cannot be readily adapted to the study of multiple, coexisting strains. In this context, particularly lacking are models that could elucidate re-infection with the same strain or a different strain-phenomena that we are seeing experiencing more and more with COVID-19. Here, we establish a novel mathematical model to study the simultaneous spreading of two strains over a class of temporal networks. We build on the classical susceptible-exposed-infectious-removed model, by incorporating additional states that account for infections and re-infections with multiple strains. The temporal network is based on the activity-driven network paradigm, which has emerged as a model of choice to study dynamic processes that unfold at a time scale comparable to the network evolution. We draw analytical insight from the dynamics of the stochastic network systems through a mean-field approach, which allows for characterizing the onset of different behavioral phenotypes (non-epidemic, epidemic, and endemic). To demonstrate the practical use of the model, we examine an intermittent stay-at-home containment strategy, in which a fraction of the population is randomly required to isolate for a fixed period of time.

Spatiotemporal patterns of firearm acquisition in the United States in different presidential terms.

This study develops mathematical tools and approaches to investigate spatiotemporal patterns of firearm acquisition in the U.S. complemented by hypothesis testing and statistical analysis. First, state-level and nation-level instant background check (BC) data are employed as proxy of firearm acquisition corresponding to 1999-2021. The relative-phase time-series of BC in each U.S. state is recovered and utilized to calculate the time-series of the U.S. states' synchronization degree. We reveal that U.S. states present a high-level degree of synchronization except in 2010-2011 and after 2018. Comparing these results with respect to a sitting U.S. president provides additional information: specifically, any two presidential terms are characterized by statistically different synchronization degrees except G. W. Bush's first term and B. H. Obama's second term. Next, to detail variations of BC, short-time Fourier transform, dimensionality reduction techniques, and diffusion maps are implemented within a time-frequency representation. Firearm acquisition in the high frequency band is described by a low-dimensional embedding, in the form of a plane with two embedding coordinates. Data points on the embedding plane identify separate clusters that signify state transitions in the original BC data with respect to different time windows. Through this analysis, we reveal that the frequency content of the BC data has a time-dependent characteristic. By comparing the diffusion map at hand with respect to a presidential term, we find that at least one of the embedding coordinates presents statistically significant variations between any two presidential terms except B. H. Obama's first term and D. J. Trump's pre-COVID term. The results point at a possible interplay between firearm acquisition in the U.S. and a presidential term.

Predicting the Effects of Waning Vaccine Immunity Against COVID-19 through High-Resolution Agent-Based Modeling (Adv. Theory Simul. 6/2022)

Predicting the Effects of Waning Vaccine Immunity Against COVID-19 through High-Resolution Agent-Based Modeling Mathematical models have proven to be indispensable in our fight against COVID-19. In article 2100521, Agnieszka Truszkowska, Maurizio Porfiri, and co-workers expand on a high-resolution agent-based model published previously in this journal to study the effectiveness of the booster shot campaign in preventing new COVID-19 waves in the town of New Rochelle, NY. Image by Anna Sawulska and Maurizio Porfiri.

Urban Determinants of COVID-19 Spread: a Comparative Study across Three Cities in New York State.

The ongoing pandemic is laying bare dramatic differences in the spread of COVID-19 across seemingly similar urban environments. Identifying the urban determinants that underlie these differences is an open research question, which can contribute to more epidemiologically resilient cities, optimized testing and detection strategies, and effective immunization efforts. Here, we perform a computational analysis of COVID-19 spread in three cities of similar size in New York State (Colonie, New Rochelle, and Utica) aiming to isolate urban determinants of infections and deaths. We develop detailed digital representations of the cities and simulate COVID-19 spread using a complex agent-based model, taking into account differences in spatial layout, mobility, demographics, and occupational structure of the population. By critically comparing pandemic outcomes across the three cities under equivalent initial conditions, we provide compelling evidence in favor of the central role of hospitals. Specifically, with highly efficacious testing and detection, the number and capacity of hospitals, as well as the extent of vaccination of hospital employees are key determinants of COVID-19 spread. The modulating role of these determinants is reduced at lower efficacy of testing and detection, so that the pandemic outcome becomes equivalent across the three cities.

Predicting the Effects of Waning Vaccine Immunity Against COVID‐19 through High‐Resolution Agent‐Based Modeling

The potential waning of the vaccination immunity to COVID‐19 could pose threats to public health, as it is tenable that the timing of such waning would synchronize with the near‐complete restoration of normalcy. Should also testing be relaxed, a resurgent COVID‐19 wave in winter 2021/2022 might be witnessed. In response to this risk, an additional vaccine dose, the booster shot, is being administered worldwide. A projected study with an outlook of 6 months explores the interplay between the rate at which boosters are distributed and the extent to which testing practices are implemented, using a highly granular agent‐based model tuned on a medium‐sized US town. Theoretical projections indicate that the administration of boosters at the rate at which the vaccine is currently administered could yield a severe resurgence of the pandemic. Projections suggest that the peak levels of mid‐spring 2021 in the vaccination rate may prevent such a scenario to occur, although exact agreement between observations and projections should not be expected due to the continuously evolving nature of the pandemic. This study highlights the importance of testing, especially to detect asymptomatic individuals in the near future, as the release of the booster reaches full speed. Mathematical models have been proven to be indispensable in our fight against COVID‐19. This paper expands on a high‐resolution agent‐based model published previously in this journal to study the effectiveness of the booster shot campaign in preventing a new wave in the town of New Rochelle, NY during this fall and the coming spring.

A Low-Cost Telerehabilitation Paradigm for Bimanual Training

The COVID-19 pandemic has transformed daily life, as individuals must reduce contacts among each other to prevent the spread of the disease. Consequently, patients’ access to outpatient rehabilitation care was curtailed and their prospect for recovery has been compromised. Telerehabilitation has the potential to provide these patients with equally efficacious therapy in their homes. Using commercial gaming devices with embedded motion sensors, data on movement can be collected toward objective assessment of motor performance, followed by training and documentation of progress. Herein, we present a low-cost telerehabilitation system dedicated to bimanual exercise, wherein the healthy arm drives movements of the affected arm. In the proposed setting, a patient manipulates a dowel embedded with a sensor in front of a Microsoft Kinect sensor. In order to provide an engaging environment for the exercise, the dowel is interfaced with a personal computer, to serve as a controller. The patient’s gestures are translated into actions in a custom-made citizen-science project. Along with the system, we introduce an algorithm for classification of the bimanual movements, whose inner workings are detailed in terms of the procedures performed for dimensionality reduction, feature extraction, and movement classification. We demonstrate the feasibility of our system on eight healthy subjects, offering support to the validity of the algorithm. These preliminary findings set forth the development of precise motion analysis algorithms in affordable home-based rehabilitation.

Smart Charging Management for Autonomous Vehicles: A Smart Solution for Smart Cities & Societies: COVID 19 Predicting the Effects of Waning Vaccine Immunity Against COVID-19 through High-Resolution Agent-Based Modeling

Summary Smart Cities have a high quality of life determined by several variables with renewable transport networks, protection and health, open space connectivity, and other critical facilities. The key elements of smart city classification are transportation, traffic management, and parking. Among those elements, the intelligent transportation system plays a vital role. Big data analytics can create smart cities to achieve a smart transport system, autonomous vehicles, and crowdsourcing. The coronavirus disease (COVID-19) has spread quickly through China since December 2019 and later globally. As this article was written, the disease was reported to globally infect 100 countries. Evening transmission from person to person is a practical approach for controlling and preventing the epidemic. Specific everyday tasks, such as logistics that move goods in our daily lives, ultimately require interaction between men. Using an automated logistic vehicle has been the preferred option for achieving the contactless transportation of goods. This chapter describes Hercules, an autonomous logistic vehicle used to move goods without touch during the outbreak of COVID-19. The vehicle shall be equipped for autonomous navigation capability. The research introduces the mechanism for smart charging of shared autonomous electric vehicles. Researchers include information on the hardware and software and the algorithms for achieving autonomous navigation, including vision, planning, and control. Autonomous vehicles (AVs) are believed to provide many profits for individuals and society, with increased road safety, reduced traffic congestion, and an improved ecological footprint. However, many barriers still hinder the widespread acceptance of autonomous driving. During this pandemic situation, decision-making towards adopting autonomous driving imposes a more accessible and reliable way to deliver things, such as food and medical supplies, in an emergency than policymakers and automakers have devoted in recent years. Innovative AVs emerge as potential energy savers in the transportation system. There is a cumulative emphasis on AVs together in terms of rapid technological advances and evaluating these technologies and their significant effects on society and transportation systems during COVID-19 around the world. The potential waning of the vaccination immunity to COVID-19 could pose threats to public health, as it is tenable that the timing of such waning would synchronize with the near-complete restoration of normalcy. Should also testing be relaxed, a resurgent COVID-19 wave in winter 2021/2022 might be witnessed. In response to this risk, an additional vaccine dose, the booster shot, is being administered worldwide. A projected study with an outlook of 6 months explores the interplay between the rate at which boosters are distributed and the extent to which testing practices are implemented, using a highly granular agent-based model tuned on a medium-sized US town. Theoretical projections indicate that the administration of boosters at the rate at which the vaccine is currently administered could yield a severe resurgence of the pandemic. Projections suggest that the peak levels of mid-spring 2021 in the vaccination rate may prevent such a scenario to occur, although exact agreement between observations and projections should not be expected due to the continuously evolving nature of the pandemic. This study highlights the importance of testing, especially to detect asymptomatic individuals in the near future, as the release of the booster reaches full speed.

Design and Feasibility Study of the Mobile Application StopTheSpread.

The emergence of recent disease outbreaks calls for the design of new educational games aimed at increasing awareness in disease prevention. This article presents StopTheSpread, an educational mobile application that seeks to improve awareness about the best practices to prevent the spreading of seasonal flu in the general public. StopTheSpread integrates concepts in network science and epidemiology, within a freely available mobile application that provides a unique learning experience for free-choice learners about flu prevention. StopTheSpread teaches users basic concepts about flu prevention, within a series of games of increasing difficulty that maintain user engagement and offers a user-friendly design. StopTheSpread provides a summary of the best practices to prevent flu spreading according to the guidelines of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, and the World Health Organization, while connecting users to citizen science projects aimed at worldwide flu tracking. Through Facebook, Twitter, and email we reached volunteers during the COVID-19 confinement, to conduct an online feasibility study, toward assessing learning outcome in playing with our mobile application. Our results indicate that the use of StopTheSpread increased by 20% the awareness about the spreading mechanism of flu, compared with the baseline population.

Manufacturing for the Masses: A Novel Concept for Consumer 3D Printer Networks in the Context of Crisis Relief

Local or national crises, such as natural disasters, major infrastructure failures, and pandemics, pose dire threats to manufacturing. The concept of a rideshare‐like distributed network of consumer‐type 3D printers is proposed to address the limited ability of the industrial base to quickly respond to abrupt changes in critical product demand or to disruptions in manufacturing and supply‐chain capacity. The technical challenges that prevent the implementation of such a network are discussed, including 1) remote qualification of 3D printers, 2) dynamic routing algorithms with reactive and predictive components, which take advantage of real‐time information about current events that may affect the network, and 3) performance evaluation of the network. Furthermore, a cyber‐infrastructure that enables autonomous operation and reconfiguration of the network to render it “crisis‐proof” by minimizing human involvement is introduced. The concept of a distributed network of consumer‐type 3D printers allows anyone with a 3D printer and access to the internet to manufacture critical supplies, triggered by actual and predicted customer demand. Beyond crisis relief, distributed networks of manufacturing assets have broad relevance, and they can establish a virtual marketplace to exchange manufacturing capacity. Thus, this future manufacturing platform has the potential to transform how to manufacture for the masses.

Quantifying the role of the COVID-19 pandemic in the 2020 U.S. presidential elections.

In the media, a prevalent narrative is that the incumbent United States President Donald J. Trump lost the 2020 elections because of the way he handled the COVID-19 pandemic. Quantitative evidence to support this narrative is, however, limited. We put forward a spatial, information-theoretic approach to critically examine the link between voting behavior and COVID-19 incidence in the 2020 presidential elections. The approach overcomes classical limitations of traditional regression analysis, where it does not require an underlying mathematical model and it can capture nonlinear interactions. From the analysis of county-level data, we uncovered a robust association between voting behavior and prevalence of COVID-19 cases. Surprisingly, such an association points in the opposite direction from the accepted narrative: in counties that experienced less COVID-19 cases, the incumbent President lost more ground to his opponent, now President Joseph R. Biden Jr. A tenable explanation of this observation is the different attitude of liberal and conservative voters toward the pandemic, which led to more COVID-19 spreading in counties with a larger share of republican voters.

Analysis of lockdown perception in the United States during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Containment measures have been applied throughout the world to halt the COVID-19 pandemic. In the United States, several forms of lockdown have been adopted in different parts of the country, leading to heterogeneous epidemiological, social, and economic effects. Here, we present a spatio-temporal analysis of a Twitter dataset comprising 1.3 million geo-localized Tweets about lockdown, from January to May 2020. Through sentiment analysis, we classified Tweets as expressing positive or negative emotions about lockdown, demonstrating a change in perception during the course of the pandemic modulated by socio-economic factors. A transfer entropy analysis of the time series of Tweets unveiled that the emotions in different parts of the country did not evolve independently. Rather, they were mediated by spatial interactions, which were also related to socio-ecomomic factors and, arguably, to political orientations. This study constitutes a first, necessary step toward isolating the mechanisms underlying the acceptance of public health interventions from highly resolved online datasets.

Designing the Safe Reopening of US Towns Through High-Resolution Agent-Based Modeling.

As COVID-19 vaccine is being rolled out in the US, public health authorities are gradually reopening the economy. To date, there is no consensus on a common approach among local authorities. Here, a high-resolution agent-based model is proposed to examine the interplay between the increased immunity afforded by the vaccine roll-out and the transmission risks associated with reopening efforts. The model faithfully reproduces the demographics, spatial layout, and mobility patterns of the town of New Rochelle, NY - representative of the urban fabric of the US. Model predictions warrant caution in the reopening under the current rate at which people are being vaccinated, whereby increasing access to social gatherings in leisure locations and households at a 1% daily rate can lead to a 28% increase in the fatality rate within the next three months. The vaccine roll-out plays a crucial role on the safety of reopening: doubling the current vaccination rate is predicted to be sufficient for safe, rapid reopening.

How adherence to public health measures shapes epidemic spreading: A temporal network model.

The COVID-19 pandemic has laid bare the importance of non-pharmaceutical interventions in the containment of airborne infectious diseases. Social distancing and mask-wearing have been found to contain COVID-19 spreading across a number of observational studies, but a precise understanding of their combined effectiveness is lacking. An underdeveloped area of research entails the quantification of the specific role of each of these measures when they are differentially adopted by the population. Pursuing this research allows for answering several pressing questions like: how many people should follow public health measures for them to be effective for everybody? Is it sufficient to practice social distancing only or just wear a mask? Here, we make a first step in this direction, by establishing a susceptible-exposed-infected-removed epidemic model on a temporal network, evolving according to the activity-driven paradigm. Through analytical and numerical efforts, we study epidemic spreading as a function of the proportion of the population following public health measures, the extent of social distancing, and the efficacy of masks in protecting the wearer and others. Our model demonstrates that social distancing and mask-wearing can be effective in preventing COVID-19 outbreaks if adherence to both measures involves a substantial fraction of the population.

COVID-19 Modeling: High-Resolution Agent-Based Modeling of COVID-19 Spreading in a Small Town (Adv. Theory Simul. 3/2021).

Since 2020, COVID-19 has wreaked havoc across the planet, taking the lives of more than one million people. The uncertainty and novelty of the current conditions call for the development of theory and simulation tools that can support effective policy-making. In article number 2000277, Agnieszka Truszkowska, Maurizio Porfiri, and co-workers report a high-resolution, agent-based modeling platform to simulate the spreading of COVID-19 in the city of New Rochelle, NY-one of the first outbreaks registered in the United States. Image by Anna Sawulska, Agnieszka Truszkowska, Beata Truszkowska, and Maurizio Porfiri.

Modelling and predicting the effect of social distancing and travel restrictions on COVID-19 spreading.

To date, the only effective means to respond to the spreading of the COVID-19 pandemic are non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), which entail policies to reduce social activity and mobility restrictions. Quantifying their effect is difficult, but it is key to reducing their social and economic consequences. Here, we introduce a meta-population model based on temporal networks, calibrated on the COVID-19 outbreak data in Italy and applied to evaluate the outcomes of these two types of NPIs. Our approach combines the advantages of granular spatial modelling of meta-population models with the ability to realistically describe social contacts via activity-driven networks. We focus on disentangling the impact of these two different types of NPIs: those aiming at reducing individuals' social activity, for instance through lockdowns, and those that enforce mobility restrictions. We provide a valuable framework to assess the effectiveness of different NPIs, varying with respect to their timing and severity. Results suggest that the effects of mobility restrictions largely depend on the possibility of implementing timely NPIs in the early phases of the outbreak, whereas activity reduction policies should be prioritized afterwards.

High-Resolution Agent-Based Modeling of COVID-19 Spreading in a Small Town.

Amid the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, public health authorities and the general population are striving to achieve a balance between safety and normalcy. Ever changing conditions call for the development of theory and simulation tools to finely describe multiple strata of society while supporting the evaluation of "what-if" scenarios. Particularly important is to assess the effectiveness of potential testing approaches and vaccination strategies. Here, an agent-based modeling platform is proposed to simulate the spreading of COVID-19 in small towns and cities, with a single-individual resolution. The platform is validated on real data from New Rochelle, NY-one of the first outbreaks registered in the United States. Supported by expert knowledge and informed by reported data, the model incorporates detailed elements of the spreading within a statistically realistic population. Along with pertinent functionality such as testing, treatment, and vaccination options, the model accounts for the burden of other illnesses with symptoms similar to COVID-19. Unique to the model is the possibility to explore different testing approaches-in hospitals or drive-through facilities-and vaccination strategies that could prioritize vulnerable groups. Decision-making by public authorities could benefit from the model, for its fine-grain resolution, open-source nature, and wide range of features.

Unequal effects of the national lockdown on mental and social health in Italy.

With the exception of a few countries that chose a different approach, the worldwide reaction to the COVID-19 pandemic was a (longer or shorter) period of national lockdown. While the economic consequences of shutting down national economies were immediately evident, the sociopsychiatric implications of the social confinement of the entire population remain hidden and not fully understood. Italy has been the first European country to be severely impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic, to which it responded through strict lockdown measurements. The results of a timely survey on mental and social health, carried out by students and teachers of a middle school in Rome, might help identify the most vulnerable groups of the population. This evidence could be crucial in conceiving and enacting targeted public health policies to mitigate the consequences of the pandemic on mental health and to prevent intolerance to containment measures in some population segments, which could hamper worldwide efforts in the fight against COVID-19.

A multi-agent model to study epidemic spreading and vaccination strategies in an urban-like environment.

Worldwide urbanization calls for a deeper understanding of epidemic spreading within urban environments. Here, we tackle this problem through an agent-based model, in which agents move in a two-dimensional physical space and interact according to proximity criteria. The planar space comprises several locations, which represent bounded regions of the urban space. Based on empirical evidence, we consider locations of different density and place them in a core-periphery structure, with higher density in the central areas and lower density in the peripheral ones. Each agent is assigned to a base location, which represents where their home is. Through analytical tools and numerical techniques, we study the formation mechanism of the network of contacts, which is characterized by the emergence of heterogeneous interaction patterns. We put forward an extensive simulation campaign to analyze the onset and evolution of contagious diseases spreading in the urban environment. Interestingly, we find that, in the presence of a core-periphery structure, the diffusion of the disease is not affected by the time agents spend inside their base location before leaving it, but it is influenced by their motion outside their base location: a strong tendency to return to the base location favors the spreading of the disease. A simplified one-dimensional version of the model is examined to gain analytical insight into the spreading process and support our numerical findings. Finally, we investigate the effectiveness of vaccination campaigns, supporting the intuition that vaccination in central and dense areas should be prioritized.